Bayesian Age Prediction Calculator

Bayesian Age Prediction Calculator

Estimate chronological age from morphological observations using the shared Bayesian model; sex determines the validated applicability range.

Shared Bayesian model

Enter observations

Values update automatically. Half-point entries are accepted for bilateral averages.

Model and validation details
Reference sample533 females; male validation sample n = 596 at age ≥45
Reference agesFemale 16–93; Male 45–101 years
Female CV RMSE5.65 years
Male ≥45 RMSE4.75 years
95% range coverage94.2% female; 96.1% male ≥45
MethodShared female-derived second-order empirical-Bayes regression; no practical sex-specific offset required for males ≥45

Posterior prediction

Predicted age years
80% interval years
95% interval years
Enter observations to calculate a prediction.
Posterior predictive distribution shaded bands show 80% and 95% prediction ranges

A posterior predictive interval describes plausible ages for a new individual under this model. It is wider than uncertainty around the regression mean because it includes individual variation.

Research-use caution: The female base is internally validated across its observed female age range. Male applicability was validated for ages 45–101 and should not be extended to younger males without further validation.